Climate Change and the Velocity of the Shifting Niche

A little more than a month ago, I posted a three-part series on the topic of ecological niches with specific reference to their ability to track the ever shifting variables of climate. In large part drawn from research out of UC Berkeley and the ongoing Grinnell Project, those posts focused on the weather patterns associated with the mountainous terrain of Yosemite National Park. Today, Nature published a letter in which other California based scientists have extrapolated the shifting niche model in order to estimate the anticipated ‘velocity’ of temperature change across different biomes.

The ability of an organism to confront ever-shifting environmental attributes with resilience and flexibility is critical to maintaining lineages with the capacity to undergo the morphological and behavioral modifications required for continued survival. Regardless if such elastic traits are realized through major swings in ontogenic development, or through the advent of novel life-history strategies, the ability of an organism to accommodate ecological variability is essential. This biological tenet is certainly true today as anthropogenically incited climate change is forcing accelerated rates of ecological alteration.

Just how fast are these alterations occurring? How fast are the biomes moving?

In tropical and subtropical coniferous forests at a rate of 0.08 km/yr

In flooded grasslands at about 1.26 km/yr

In tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests at 0.42 km/yr

Mangroves forests 0.95 km/yr

Within Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrub at around 0.26 km/yr

In tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests 0.33 km/yr

In temperate broadleaf and mixed forests at 0.35 km/yr

In temperate grasslands, savannas and shrublands at 0.59 km/yr

Etc… The paper offers more biome classifications.

In looking at the rates of spatially shifting biomes, the researchers found that only about “8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years.” Niche’s are definitely on the move.


ALSO SEE: Adapting to Climate Change, the Uphill Pursuit of the Shifting Niche


Loarie, S., Duffy, P., Hamilton, H., Asner, G., Field, C., & Ackerly, D. (2009). The velocity of climate change Nature, 462 (7276), 1052-1055 DOI: 10.1038/nature08649

Hints of a Catastrophic Paleoclimatic Event from Manny the Mammoth

In an effort to gain insight into the challenges posed by climate change, I just spent the last couple of hours watching the animated feature film “Ice Age 2 – The Meltdown.” The plot of the cartoon centers on a group of anthropomorphized prehistoric mammals (a mammoth, saber-toothed tiger, sloth and a halfwit saber-toothed squirrel) as they flee an impending flood and their certain extinction. Interestingly enough, the floodwaters in the movie purportedly result from a period of global warming and the associated thawing of their fictional ice-aged world. Initially, the characters in the film celebrate the rising temperatures with lakeside antics, but their clowning around comes to an abrupt end when they realize that their short-term fun-in-the-sun will inevitably end with substantial losses in lakeside real-estate, an ecosystem on which they’ve come to depend.

All considered I enjoyed the cartoon; mostly because of its paleoclimatological accuracy. Well, maybe it wasn’t all that accurate, but the underlying theme wasn’t too far-off…

Parallels between the feature and the real paleontological past can be glimpsed when consideration is given to the thermal fluctuations and water linked extinctions portrayed in the film. To explain, the impending floodwaters in the movie were precariously dammed by a mile-high glacial wall. It was the gradual disintegration of this frozen barrier that established the dramatic timeline for the lead mammals escape from danger. The waters bound by the glacial front had accumulated through the receding of the glacier itself, and should the wall be breached the waters would be freed to reap havoc. Although such a physical setting may seem a bit far fetched, it just so happens that between 12,900–11,500 years ago similar lakeside conditions may have contributed to the extinctions of numerous North American mammal species.

Characters from the ‘Ice Age 2’ ; glacier and glacial lake (Lake Agassiz?) in background.

During the Wisconsin glaciations about 12,000 years before the present, a massive continental ice sheet covered most of what is today the United States and Canada. As the Wisconsin came to a close, rising temperatures instigated its receding glaciers to form a colossal lake; roughly centered on modern day Manitoba. The lake was uniquely positioned in such a way that a combination of topography and its inclusive glacial blockades trapped the discharge of meltwater. The glacial melt, being unable to drain, resultantly accumulated in a water body that covered nearly half of a million square kilometers – Lake Agassiz. As in the animated movie, once sufficient hydrology was achieved to overcome its restricting geography and ice, the water was released in a catastrophic flooding event of incomprehensible immensity. However, unlike the cartoon’s scripted drama, the direst impact to fauna 12,000 years ago wasn’t the risk of drowning; the biggest consequence of the flood was its affects to global climate.

The enormous quantity of water released from the rupture of Lake Agassiz’s glacial banks, as opposed to flowing directly southward, chose to exit by way of the Saint Lawrence River. Following the St. Lawrence, the freshwaters moved eastward and into the North Atlantic. Once in the North Atlantic, the vast icy water cooled the warmer North Atlantic Current, and rapidly diluted the saline gradients that help drive its heat-conveying waters. Known as thermohaline circulation, variations in ocean water density create flow patterns that convey heat from regions proximal to the equator to those areas located more pole-ward; the constituent variations in density are brought about by surficial heat and saline content. The rupture of Lake Agassiz impacted the thermohaline circulation of the North Atlantic Current, altered heat transfer to the northern hemisphere, and drastically changed the Pleistocene climate of the North American Continent. The rapid climate change associated with the Lake Agassiz event is known as the Younger Dryas stadial (a ‘stadial’ is the name assigned to a period of cooling temperatures).

During the Younger Dryas stadial, mean annual temperatures throughout large portions of the Northern Hemisphere plummeted by as much as five-degrees Celsius. The drop in temperature caused some regions to re-glaciate, despite what had until recently been a warming trend. Climate change forced ecosystems into flux, and likely contributed to the extinction of several genera of mammals – The End Pleistocene Extinction Event.

The End Pleistocene Extinction Event marked the end of the road for some of the characters portrayed in the Ice Age movie, saber-toothed cats, giant sloths, mastodons and similar mammals. As a matter of fact, a recent article in Science collaborated the extinction chronology for more than 30 genera of Pleistocene fauna; the study used data from FAUNMAP to determine that the extinctions occurred nearly simultaneously.

Although much is known about the Younger Dryas stadial, its exact contribution to the End Pleistocene Extinction is still largely a matter for debate. Complicating the issue is the immigration of Clovis people into North America at about the same time that the Younger Dryas was putting a strangle-hold on the climate. The Clovis may have participated in the mammals’ disappearance through hunting – the Overkill Hypothesis.


Faith, J., & Surovell, T. (2009). Synchronous extinction of North America's Pleistocene mammals Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0908153106

Adapting to Climate Change, the Uphill Pursuit of the Shifting Niche

This post represents the final in a three part series discussing Joseph Grinnell, climate change and ecological niches. The initial post can be found here: Joseph Grinnell, Climate Change and the Legacy of the California Thrasher, and the second here: Tracking the Niche, a Project of Grinnellian Proportions.



Having adopted Joseph Grinnell’s vision as their own, the current Director of the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at Berkeley and his colleagues have taken on the challenge of following in Grinnell’s footsteps – quite literally. The group, headed by current Director Craig Moritz, has begun the process of resurveying the 700-plus localities that were originally surveyed by Grinnell in the early 20th Century. Their goal is to compare the newly collected data to that inherited from Grinnell in aspirations of gaining insight into how a century of environmental change has impacted California’s avian, mammalian and herpetological faunas. Through application of carefully recalibrated Grinnellian field-methods, and the employment of modern techniques, the group is expanding biology’s understanding of the ecological niche.

As discussed during the first post on this topic (available HERE), the effects of average changes in global climate can be dramatically amplified at local levels. As a case in point, consider the region of California that was originally surveyed by Grinnell between the years 1914 and 1920. Over the past 100 years an approximate one-degree rise in global temperatures has resulted in a 3.7°C increase in minimum monthly temperature! A four-degree change in temperature has undoubtedly altered the ecology of this region - Yosemite National Park – in substantial and quantifiable ways. Such quantification has been precise goal of Grinnell’s successor.

Pulling data from Grinnell’s field-notes and DNA from his collected specimens, Craig Moritz has used climate models, modern genetics and biodiversity informatics to decipher and compare the demographies of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians of past and present. The analysis rendered from this research clearly indicates that the link between environment-and-species has remained true since its inception in Grinnell’s 'The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher'. More specifically, as the 3.7°C increase in minimum monthly temperature pushed Yosemite’s available habitats towards new equilibriums its fauna followed suit.

Yosemite’s geologic and geographic setting entails a range of elevations that extend from about 50 meters to well over 3000 meters above sea level. As is typical for diverging elevations, as altitude increases average temperatures decrease. So, if moving towards the top of a mountain one could anticipate encountering bands of cooler micro-climates. The relationship that exists between a specific temperature range and its corresponding physical components allow for identification of specific ‘life zones’. For example, the hydrology found on a mountain’s glacial peaks will differ in type and quantity to that located near the base of the mountain. In considering this natural phenomenon of elevational transition with specific regard to an overall increase in temperature across the mountainous region as a whole, an upward shift in ‘life zones’ could be predicted. In other words, as a temperature increase reaches a certain threshold, the glaciers capping a mountain will recede as to reduce the total area occupied by ice, and to increase the availability of liquid water. With increased access to water, life zones that had been previously locked in a frozen state will become biologically available to plants formerly bounded to lower glacier-free altitudes.

Moritz’s comparison of the life zones documented by Joseph Grinnell to those surveyed by his research group demonstrated that as Yosemite’s temperature increased over the past century, its life zones moved upwards. Significantly, the research showed that the uphill advance of life zones induced pursuit by those avian and mammalian faunas found below. The general pattern discovered by Moritz was that as temperatures increased in the park, the majority of wildlife populations found at high elevations contacted upwards, abandoning previously occupied portions of their lower habitat range. Correspondingly, those animals occupying lower altitudes shifted their habitats uphill.

The ability of Yosemite’s wildlife to confront ever-shifting environmental attributes with resilience and flexibility is critical to maintaining lineages with the capacity to undergo the morphological and behavioral modifications required for their continued survival. The study of the processes driving this evolution, provides more than just a greater understanding of natural history, it also imparts the tools to ensure species conservation as global climate change accelerates environmental fluctuation. Luckily, field scientists such as Joseph Grinnell have, and will continue, to provide insight into the plasticity of adaptation.


See: The Grinnell Project's website.



Moritz, C., Patton, J., Conroy, C., Parra, J., White, G., & Beissinger, S. (2008). Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA Science, 322 (5899), 261-264 DOI: 10.1126/science.1163428

Tingley, M., Monahan, W., Beissinger, S., & Moritz, C. (2009). Colloquium Papers: Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (Supplement_2), 19637-19643 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0901562106

Joseph Grinnell (1917). The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher The Auk, 34 (4), 427-433

Joseph Grinnell (1924). Geography and Evolution Ecology, 5 (3), 225-229

Tracking the Niche, A Project of Grinnellian Proportions

This post is the second in a mini-series discussing Joseph Grinnell, climate change and ecological niches. The previous post is available here: Joseph Grinnell, Climate Change and the Legacy of the California Thrasher



Joseph Grinnell was THE quintessential field biologist. From the time of his birth in 1877 (or, roughly thereabouts), until his to death in 1939 he marveled at the natural world. He reveled in nature’s aesthetic splendor, and he contemplated its immense mystery. He dedicated his entire life to the field of biology; birds, reptiles, mammals and amphibians – he studied them all, and he did so with great detail.

Grinnell’s philosophy of scientific inquiry focused intently on the task of accumulating as much raw data as possible. For example, during the biological survey he carried out in Yosemite National Park between the years 1914 and 1920, Grinnell and his field crews collected 817 photographs, nearly 3000 animal specimens and more than 2000 pages of notes! Being organized and detail oriented is one thing, but Grinnell’s drive for thoroughness approached the obsessive.

As testimony to Grinnell’s view on taking accurate field notes, consider the following precept that he was known for continuously repeating as a mantra for meticulousness;

“Put it all down. You might not think it’s important, but somebody else may.” (1)

It may very well have been the sheer bulk of his available data that guided Joseph Grinnell to develop the concept of the ‘ecological niche’ discussed during the last post in this series (Available HERE). After all, he collected information on everything from the individual behavioral characteristics and morphology of observed animals to the daily weather patterns of Yosemite; all of these informational axes have been incorporated into the ecological niche concept. Even if the ‘niche’ wasn’t born of the data directly, the huge quantity of collected information would certainly have been useful during the writing of Grinnell’s numerous research papers and species descriptions, which are more than 500 in number.

Yet greater evidence to Grinnell’s tenacity can be found in the fact that despite his time spent collecting, he still managed to teach and perform administrative duties as the first Director of the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at Berkeley. An absolutely astonishing scientist!

In considering Grinnell’s knack for field work, another of his now famous quotes comes to mind. This one (from 1910) relates to the long-term value of the data that he and his colleagues were collecting.

“This value will not, however, be realized until the lapse of many years, possibly a century, assuming that our material is safely preserved. And this is that the student of the future will have access to the original record of faunal conditions in California and the West, wherever we now work.”

This quote would turn out to be very prophetic…

What possible value could be reaped in modern times for century-old data collected during Grinnell’s survey of the ‘Yosemite Tract’? What would comprehensive and weather-correlated descriptions of wildlife niches tell us about contemporary linkages of climate-and-niche?

A few steps are required in order to assess the above questions. As an initial step, there would be a need to quantify the climate-to-niche relationships of current systems. Once such modern data was in-hand, comparisons could be made between the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ to identify any patterns or inconsistencies. In other words, to gauge change compare Grinnell’s data with what is exhibited by Yosemite’s ecosystems today.



This is precisely what the present Director of the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at Berkeley has done. He and his colleagues went to field, and using Grinnell’s notes and methods collected new data for the purpose of comparison. Their resurvey - The Grinnell Project - and findings will be discussed during the next post...


UPDATE: The 3rd and final installment of this series is available HERE.


1-As told to Ward Russell during a field survey; an audio recording of Ward’s 1992 interview can be found at the MVZ @ Berkeley website – HERE



Joseph Grinnell (1917). The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher The Auk, 34 (4), 427-433

Joseph Grinnell (1924). Geography and Evolution Ecology, 5 (3), 225-229

Moritz, C., Patton, J., Conroy, C., Parra, J., White, G., & Beissinger, S. (2008). Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA Science, 322 (5899), 261-264 DOI: 10.1126/science.1163428

Joseph Grinnell, Climate Change and the Legacy of the California Thrasher

Adaptive plasticity is a predictor of future reproductive fitness. The ability of an organism to confront ever-shifting environmental attributes with resilience and flexibility is critical to maintaining lineages with the capacity to undergo the morphological and behavioral modifications required for continued survival. Regardless if such elastic traits are realized through major swings in ontogenic development, or through the advent of novel life-history strategies, the ability of an organism to accommodate ecological variability is essential. This biological tenet is certainly true today as anthropogenically incited climate change is forcing accelerated rates of ecological alteration.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reported that mean global temperatures could increase by more than six-degrees over the course of the next century. Six degrees of global change translates to extremely dramatic transformations of biotic and abiotic conditions at the local level. Even if the ‘worse case scenario’ of six-degrees doesn’t come to pass changes in hydrology, periodic weather, seasonal patterns, emigration, extinction and in the availability of resources at regional and local levels are almost certainly inevitable during the next century. To cope with these changes it will be necessary for organisms to adjust their tolerances to environmental variability, they may need to more-efficiently utilize the resources on-hand, or they may need to physically relocate to habitats for which they are better suited. To better understand how these impending organism-to-environment adjustments will occur, it's important to seek understanding as to how organisms fit into their ecosystem. It is the relative position of an organism in its environment and the way in which it behaviorally responds to its surroundings that is referred to as the organism’s ‘niche’.

With respect to etymology, the word ‘niche’ is derived from the French word ‘nicher’ which literally means ‘to nest,’ as in a bird going to nest. In regards to the word’s use in biology – broadly defined above - this literal translation is very appropriate, because the term was first introduced by an ornithologist in a publication describing the distribution of a bird - the California thrasher (Toxostoma redivivum).

The California thrasher is the largest member of the Mimidae Family and can grow to be uupwards of 30 cm in length and weigh as much as 85 grams. The bird’s coloration is fairly non-descript; its body is brown and it has a tan or buff-colored ventral side. There are however a couple of characteristics that make T. redivivum especially unique. One is the bird's restriction to a very narrow geographic range in California, and another is its habitat preference for densely vegetated brushlands. It was the thrasher’s limited distribution and fondness for the concealment offered by shrubs that first attracted the interest of the celebrated naturalist and scientist Joseph Grinnell.

In the October 1917 issue of The Auk, Joseph Grinnell published his work 'The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher'. In that enduring contribution Grinnell explained that the reason for the thrasher’s

“…restricted distribution is probably to be found in the close adjustment of the bird in various physiological and psychological respects to a narrow range of environmental condition.”

In other words, Grinnell clearly recognized that the bird’s morphological and behavioral traits linked it to the specific ecosystem that it inhabited. Furthermore, Grinnell identified that

“[t]hese various circumstances, which emphasize dependence upon cover, and adaptation in physical structure and temperament thereto, go to demonstrate the nature of the ultimate associational niche occupied by the California Thrasher.”

In Grinnell’s mind, the relative position of the thrasher in its environment, as well as its distinctive behaviors, established a general rule that could be extrapolated and used as a tool for detailing and predicting the spatial and temporal relationships held between organisms and their environments. The ‘niche’ would quickly become a tool for not only itemizing individual life-history traits, but also for interpreting the evolutionary and adaptive implications of the organism-to-environment dynamic.

Building on his idea of an ecological niche, in July of 1924 Grinnell went on to publish ‘Geography and Evolution,’ a work in which he fathered what are contemporarily known as the competitive exclusion principle and the concept of ‘vacant niches.’

“Some of us have concluded that we can usefully recognize, as measures of distributional behavior, the realm, the region, the life-zone, the fauna, the subfauna, the association, and the ecologic or environmental niche. The latter, ultimate unit, is occupied by just one species or subspecies; if a new ecologic niche arises, or if a niche is vacated, nature hastens to supply an occupant, from whatever material may be available. Nature abhors a vacuum in the animate world as well as in the inanimate world.”

The competitive exclusion principle is the idea that two species occupying the same habitat and fighting for the same resources will not obtain equilibrium until one species overcomes, or out-competes, the other. These ideas are front-and-center to modern biology and are both credited to Grinnell.

Serving as the founding father of the ‘niche’ was but one of Joseph Grinnell’s numerous contributions to science. Over the next couple of days I hope to post more of Grinnell’s work, as well as that of his modern counterparts that are – literally – following in Grinnell’s footsteps in hopes of gaining insight into how the observations of an early 20th Century scientist can be used to decode the effects of climate change in a 21st Century world.


UPDATE: The second part of this post available HERE.

Joseph Grinnell (1917). The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher The Auk, 34 (4), 427-433

Joseph Grinnell (1924). Geography and Evolution Ecology, 5 (3), 225-229